Well, one way is to start shooting. There are enough Middle East experts to allow you to “prove” any position you like if you choose your quotes correctly, but I haven’t seen many who have argued that Israel’s latest dust-up in the desert, which has killed dozens of relatively innocent folks, will lead to anything more than “same as before only more so.” The neo-con, Likudist dream of an American army in the Middle East came true under Bush, but now it’s gone away. Obama’s re-election has made it seriously unlikely that the U.S. will ever send serious boots on the ground Bibi’s way again, but Netanyahu still can’t think of any solution that doesn’t involve overwhelming military force, force that Israel can’t command, and that the U.S. won’t deliver.
This doesn’t mean that Obama will suddenly start dissing AIPAC. Politicians who engage in emotionally satisfying gestures usually don’t re-elected president. But the continuing furor over the assassination of Ambassador Stevens is a reminder of how costly, in political terms, a handful of American deaths can be. President Obama may be wishing that he hadn’t initiated his illegal war in Libya so blithely. Force begets force in return. Sometimes it’s better to lead from far behind. I’m hoping that Obama, freed from the pressure to satisfy Netanyahu’s every whim, will see the advantages of caution while dealing with Iran.
