Are times tough all over? Michael A. Fletcher and the Washington Post would have you think so. As Mike tells it
“The problem [long-term unemployment] is ensnaring a broader swath of workers than before. Once concentrated among manufacturing workers and those with little work history, education or skills, long-term unemployment is growing most rapidly among white-collar and college-educated workers with long work experience, studies have found, making the problem difficult for policymakers to address even as it grows more urgent.”
OK, so far, so good. But what evidence does Mike have to prove that “long-term unemployment is growing most rapidly among white-collar and college-educated workers with long work experience”? He refers to “studies” but provides no data from them. He provides anecdotal evidence for a grand total of two workers—two! two!—both of whom departed from their last employer under less than ideal circumstances. One felt the job was a “bad fit,” which could mean anything from “my boss was an idiot” to “they told me that if I didn’t quit they’d fire me.” Mike’s other hapless victim had a “sleeping disorder,” which resulted in his, well, in his not showing up for work very much. Some swath!
According to Mike, “officials who work with the jobless said they are seeing more people like Dixon—educated, with stable work histories—having a hard time finding a job.”
How many officials did Mike talk to? Somehow, I’m guessing that it wasn’t a representative sample of the UI offices around the country. And when they are seeing “more people … educated, with stable work histories,” what sort of increase are they talking about? An increase from 10 a month to 12? From 500 a month to 512?
There’s no doubt that the economy is heading downward. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics* tells it
“The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000). Job growth in several service-providing industries, including professional and technical services, health care, and food services, was largely offset by job losses in construction and manufacturing. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent.”
Still, the BLS is noting job increases in professional and technical services, which doesn’t jibe well with Mike’s “hard times for the educated” riff.
I don’t think many people with college degrees are worried about their jobs, not yet. But their stock portfolios are a whole different matter. As new headlines tell us every hour, those $25 million a year geniuses on Wall Street seem to have figured out a way to crater the whole world economy. As a reporter, Mike Fletcher has a long way to go. But as a forecaster, he just might be right on the money.
*The BLS, bless its bureaucratic heart, has yet to discover proportional fonts. Its press releases still look exactly the way they did 25 years ago.
