Does ObamaCare Have a Prayer?

A week ago, I would have said yes. I would have said that there was no way that perennial swing man Anthony Kennedy would have the nerve to take the ax to a really major piece of congressional legislation, something that hasn’t happened since 1935. But that was then. The universally derided performance of Solicitor General Donald Verrilla has threatened to turn the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act into a constitutional punchline—“I haven’t seen an act so unconstitutional since the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act! (Bada Bing!)

There is still hope, thanks to Kennedy. He is fond of fancy language—the better to cover his gutlessness—but what it generally comes down to is this: he goes with whichever side wants it more. This time, however, both sides are pretty adamant, so I think concern about public perceptions could push him over the edge. If the legislation were generally popular, I think that there would no chance for Kennedy to vote against it. Its lack of popularity makes a “no” vote easier, but not that much easier. After all, if it’s that unpopular, Congress can repeal it, can’t it? Why should the Court do all the heavy lifting?

But if ObamaCare is just a joke, as at times it seemed to be, well, Kennedy may cave again, as he did in what was easily the worst Supreme Court decision in history, Bush v. Gore. And if he does, poor Donald Verrilla is going to have to take his bed and walk.

Afterwords
Slate has a wrap-up with lots of links here.