Back on Jan. 11, 2011, I unloaded rather loudly on then SecDef Robert M. Gates, in a post rather testily entitled “Robert M. Gates, totally full of it. Totally,” expressing skepticism with regard to Gates’ statement that in five years North Korea would be able to target the U.S. with an intercontinental ballistic missile, which, combined with its continuing nuclear program, would make that nation a “direct threat” to the United States.
Well, now it’s Jan. 2015, and, the New York Times reports, South Korea is telling us that North Korea is making progress in shrinking the size of its nuclear weapons and also has a missile that can reach the continental U.S. So, one for Bob?
Well, count me skeptical, since the South Koreans aren’t telling us how they know what they say they know. South Korea likes having the U.S. as its big, strong ally, but not because they are afraid of North Korea, which they seem to regard as a cranky, sometimes embarrassing, uncle who is nonetheless a member of the family. He’s not so bad! Just leave him alone when he’s acting silly and things will get back to normal!
No, South Korea isn’t afraid of North Korea. But they are afraid of China and Japan, two oversized bullies with track records of harassment and oppression that go back for centuries. Those are the guys you have to watch out for.
And it’s not just me who’s skeptical. U.S. Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, our four-star commander in South Korea, has said that if the North Koreans have a miniaturized nuclear warhead, it hasn’t been tested and a weapon “that complex, without it being tested, the probability of it being effective is pretty darn low.” And, though the General didn’t say so, I would say ditto for the 5,000 mile missile, which has yet to be seen arcing over the Pacific.
Afterwords
Come what may, I still don’t see North Korea as a “direct threat” to the U.S. If we don’t invade North Korea, that odds are pretty good that they won’t attack us. Let’s remember that Saddam “Madman” Hussein did not use his “weapons of mass destruction” even when the U.S. did attack him.
