A kinder, gentler Trump Administration? I think you meant “fascist-hysterical”. Thanks to the appointments of former Lieutenant Gen. Mike “Fear of Muslims is rational” Flynn as national security advisor and Rep. Mike “Waterboarding is cool” Pompeo as head of the CIA, we are just about guaranteed a repeat of the war on Iraq—constant accusations of bad faith made in bad faith, followed by “precision” bombing, followed by more threats, followed by terrorist attacks, followed by not so precision bombing, followed by—well, you get the picture, and I don’t want to look at it.
Over at War on the Rocks, Cato Fellow Benjamin H. Friedman has a piece, “The Trump Administration Will be Hawkish”, (gee, Ben, ya think?), which lays out, with more reason and restraint than I able to command, the eminent, and imminent, danger of an entirely unnecessary and entirely politically motivated war with Iran. The Republican right wing, as always, is hungry for a replay of the Cold War, and that is what the Mike Flynns of the world, and the administration, are determined to give us.
The obstacles to war? There is the deep fear of casualties on the part of the American people, which ensures that “boots on the ground” will always be a last resort—at least, so will we be assured, up until the last moment, when, of course, “they give us no other choice”.
It’s impossible to say how the rest of the world will react to Trump, whether the Europeans will decide that it’s his war rather than theirs, and sit on their hands, which would (maybe) slow Trump down a little. Perhaps, if we’re lucky, the Israelis and Saudis will decide that they’ve seen this movie (too often), and they’d rather not have Uncle Sam kicking ass and spraying destruction in all directions all over the mother-fucking Middle East. But right now, that’s looking like a pretty poor bet. Better buy some stock in Smart Bombs R Us, ‘cause that baby’s goin’ through the roof!