Over at Slate, Fred Kaplan notes that “The White House debate over how many troops to withdraw from Afghanistan next month is really a surrogate for a larger, more fractious debate over the wisdom and strategy of the war itself.” And Fred, being Fred, also notes that this is really really important and we ought to think about it really really hard (after so doing, I strongly suspect, Fred believes that we should stay, though he doesn’t quite have the nerve to say so). Over at the Daily Beast, Andrew Bracevich, less nuanced, thinks we should get the hell out of Dodge.
Well, I have a theory on all of this too, that can save everyone a good deal of effort and angst. Don’t bother to stress over the issue, because a real withdrawal ain’t going to happen until about six months after the 2013 inaugural.† Here’s why.
To back up just a little, in 1704 Jonathan Swift published a pamphlet called “A Tale of a Tub.” As was then the fashion, Swift published the piece, a sometimes clever, often evasive satire on the various brands of Christianity circulating at the time, in elaborately pseudonymous fashion. A fictitious editor “explained” that it was the custom of sailors, when confronted by a large and belligerent whale, to throw out a tub for the whale to butt about at its leisure and pleasure, allowing the ship to escape unharmed. In like manner, Swift’s mystery editor explained, this pamphlet was being published, so that wits and fops and coffee-house toffs might exercise their talents for ridicule and abuse while the ship of state sailed on unscathed.
Well, Afghanistan is Petreaus’ tub. A four-star general with a Ph.D. wants employment, and President Obama intends to give it to him. It’s my guess that whatever Petreaus wants in Afghanistan, Petreaus gets. If Obama gives Petreaus everything he asks for, the guy can’t leave, not without looking like a total schmuck. And if Petreaus is in Afghanistan, he can’t run for President, nor can he run around saying that the President sold us out in Afghanistan. You hold your friends close, and your enemies closer, remember? Yeah, Obama saw that movie.
Afterwords
What if a Republican wins? Well, by that time Petreaus will basically be a Democratic general, yesterday’s papers and yesterday’s news. I may be prejudiced, and probably am, but I’m guessing that Republicans and Democrats alike are realizing that there are no good reasons for us to be in Afghanistan, unless you consider inertia and political cowardice to be good reasons. What about all the people who are dying over there? Hey, war is hell. Always has been, always will be.
Actually, it’s Andrew J. Bracevich, just as it’s George F. Will. Sorry, Andy. George, go to hell.
†Of the President, dummy.
