The Education of Fred Kaplan

You’ve got to hand it to Fred: he’s not turning his back on Afghanistan, no matter how crappy it gets. Long ago, I used to ridicule Fred for his Pollyanna reports on our cool weaponry, including a 15-ton “Guided Multiple-Launch Rocket System” that, Fred insisted, people called the “70-kilometer sniper round,” which, coupled with our fabulous intel, allowed us to blow away the ever-ubiquitous “bad guys” at the touch of a button while having breakfast. Yes, Fred was a bit of a sucker, but he wised up fast, noting how vague and not upbeat official reports on our “progress” were, 70-kilometer sniper rounds to the contrary notwithstanding.

Fred smelt a rat two years ago, but he’s stayed on the case, and the most recent news reeks not merely of rodents but perhaps even the bubonic plague:

And so it turns out, the war in Afghanistan has been an even bigger mug’s game than we imagined. The latest blow comes from a story by Matthew Rosenberg in the April 28 New York Times, reporting that, for the past decade, the CIA has been dropping off bags of cash—now totaling tens of millions of dollars—at the office of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who in turn has passed it around to his cronies and favored warlords.

This is a very big deal, much more than most scandals about secret payoffs and bribes. It suggests that, in a crucial way, the war was a sham from the get-go, that the conditions for success would never—could never—be fulfilled, and that our own actions helped ensure our failure.

Well, I could get all Claude Rains on Fred’s ass (“I’m shocked! shocked! to discover gambling at Rick’s Place), but I won’t—well, not too much. I’m sorry, but when the CIA (aka “our bad guys”) wants results, they don’t play by the rules. That’s why they’re CIA—they’re people who don’t want to play by the rules, and this way they get paid to fuck people over.

What’s particularly touching about Fred’s continuing coverage of this issue is that he’s got skin in this game. Fred fell pretty hard for Gen. Petraeus’ four-star, Ph.D. rap, writing a whole book about it, The Insurgents: David Petraeus and the Plot to Change the American Way of War, only to learn now that no one really believed in all that goo-goo, hearts and minds bullshit. Only sissies play fair, and sissies never win.

Fred—and others—might ponder the thought that it’s awfully hard to help people solve their problems, particularly when you want them to solve their problems in a way that suits you rather than them. Imagine if European nations, horrified by the rampant slaughter of our very own Civil War, circa 1861-1865, had intervened, in the name of “humanity,” and settled things. How long would any settlement foisted upon us by outsiders endure? Victors would be loathed and losers despised, hatreds would be engendered that would last for centuries. Yet we blithely barge in all over the world, sure that everyone will be guided by the shimmering light of reason to do things our way. And, if they won’t, well, there’s always cash and coercion.

Fred, I’ve got another idea for changing the American way of war: Don’t start so damn many of them.